Muhammadu Buhari addresses the nation on March 10, 2017 after returning
from 50-day sick leave in London | State House Photo
For
the second time in seven years, the political stability of Africa’s
most populous nation hinges on the health of one man. General Muhammadu
Buhari, the president of Nigeria, is once again in Britain for medical
treatment because of an undisclosed illness. He was there for almost two
months earlier this year, and in June 2016 he spent nearly two weeks
abroad being treated for an ear infection. In the past month, he missed
three straight cabinet meetings due to sickness, and perhaps more
tellingly for a devout Muslim, he missed Friday mosque prayers in Abuja,
where he usually attends without fail.
the second time in seven years, the political stability of Africa’s
most populous nation hinges on the health of one man. General Muhammadu
Buhari, the president of Nigeria, is once again in Britain for medical
treatment because of an undisclosed illness. He was there for almost two
months earlier this year, and in June 2016 he spent nearly two weeks
abroad being treated for an ear infection. In the past month, he missed
three straight cabinet meetings due to sickness, and perhaps more
tellingly for a devout Muslim, he missed Friday mosque prayers in Abuja,
where he usually attends without fail.
Buhari’s unwillingness to disclose the
nature or extent of his illness fuels rumors that he is terminally ill
or, periodically, that he has already died. Last month, Garba Shehu, a
spokesman for the president, was forced to issue a series of tweets denying that anything unpleasant happened to the president. He added that reports of Buhari’s ill health are “plain lies spread by vested interests to create panic.” Buhari’s wife recently tweeted that his health is “not as bad as it’s being perceived.”
nature or extent of his illness fuels rumors that he is terminally ill
or, periodically, that he has already died. Last month, Garba Shehu, a
spokesman for the president, was forced to issue a series of tweets denying that anything unpleasant happened to the president. He added that reports of Buhari’s ill health are “plain lies spread by vested interests to create panic.” Buhari’s wife recently tweeted that his health is “not as bad as it’s being perceived.”
Regardless of the severity of his illness, Buhari’s
extended absence risks igniting an ugly power struggle that would
threaten not just the political fortunes of his ruling party but also a
long observed gentleman’s agreement that has been critical to
maintaining the stability of the country.
extended absence risks igniting an ugly power struggle that would
threaten not just the political fortunes of his ruling party but also a
long observed gentleman’s agreement that has been critical to
maintaining the stability of the country.
The unwritten power-sharing agreement
obliges the country’s major parties to alternate the presidency between
northern and southern officeholders every eight years. It was
consolidated during Nigeria’s first two democratic transfers of power —
in 1999 and 2007 — and it alleviated the southern secessionist pressures
that had festered under decades of military rule by dictators from the
north. For a time, this mechanism for alternating power helped keep the
peace in a country with hundreds of different ethnic groups and more
than 500 different languages. But it was never intended to be permanent,
and as Buhari’s illness demonstrates, it has increasingly become a
source of tension rather than consensus.
obliges the country’s major parties to alternate the presidency between
northern and southern officeholders every eight years. It was
consolidated during Nigeria’s first two democratic transfers of power —
in 1999 and 2007 — and it alleviated the southern secessionist pressures
that had festered under decades of military rule by dictators from the
north. For a time, this mechanism for alternating power helped keep the
peace in a country with hundreds of different ethnic groups and more
than 500 different languages. But it was never intended to be permanent,
and as Buhari’s illness demonstrates, it has increasingly become a
source of tension rather than consensus.
If Buhari, a northerner, doesn’t finish
his term of office, and power passes to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, a
Christian from the south, it will be the second time in seven years that
the north’s “turn” in the presidency has been cut short. In late 2009,
then-President Umaru Yar’Adua, who like Buhari was a Muslim from the
north, traveled abroad for treatment for an undisclosed illness. When
Yar’Adua died in office the following year, his southern Christian vice
president, Goodluck Jonathan, succeeded him, setting the stage for an
acrimonious split within the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) over
whether Jonathan should merely finish out Yar’Adua’s term or run to
retain the office in the 2011 election.
his term of office, and power passes to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, a
Christian from the south, it will be the second time in seven years that
the north’s “turn” in the presidency has been cut short. In late 2009,
then-President Umaru Yar’Adua, who like Buhari was a Muslim from the
north, traveled abroad for treatment for an undisclosed illness. When
Yar’Adua died in office the following year, his southern Christian vice
president, Goodluck Jonathan, succeeded him, setting the stage for an
acrimonious split within the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) over
whether Jonathan should merely finish out Yar’Adua’s term or run to
retain the office in the 2011 election.
In the end, Jonathan ran and won in 2011. But not before 800 people were killed in
riots in the north after the PDP allowed Jonathan to contest the
election. The anti-Jonathan faction later resigned in protest and defected to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) party. Buhari led the APC to victory over the PDP in 2015.
riots in the north after the PDP allowed Jonathan to contest the
election. The anti-Jonathan faction later resigned in protest and defected to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) party. Buhari led the APC to victory over the PDP in 2015.
An eerily similar scenario is now
playing out in Buhari’s APC party. If Buhari dies, resigns, or is
declared medically incapacitated by the cabinet, it would likely ignite a
similar struggle within the APC over whether Vice President Osinbajo
should permanently succeed him as president. A group of prominent
northerners has already stated that Osinbajo should serve merely as an
interim president and that he cannot replace Buhari on the ticket in
the 2019 presidential election.
playing out in Buhari’s APC party. If Buhari dies, resigns, or is
declared medically incapacitated by the cabinet, it would likely ignite a
similar struggle within the APC over whether Vice President Osinbajo
should permanently succeed him as president. A group of prominent
northerners has already stated that Osinbajo should serve merely as an
interim president and that he cannot replace Buhari on the ticket in
the 2019 presidential election.
Should
Osinbajo succeed Buhari, win the 2019 election, and serve a full
term, a Christian southerner will have been president for 18 of the 24
years since Nigeria transitioned to democracy in 1999.
Osinbajo succeed Buhari, win the 2019 election, and serve a full
term, a Christian southerner will have been president for 18 of the 24
years since Nigeria transitioned to democracy in 1999.
There is a chance that APC leaders will
convince — or force — Osinbajo to stand down in favor of another Muslim
candidate from the north. But sidelining Osinbajo would pose other
sectarian risks. He was chosen as Buhari’s running mate in part to
counter southern accusations that the APC is a Muslim party. And
although he is seen as a technocrat, Osinbajo is a powerful political
force in his own right — too powerful, perhaps, to be sidelined in 2019
without alienating millions of voters. He is a pastor in the country’s
largest evangelical church, which has some 6 million members, and his
wife is the granddaughter of Obafemi Awolowo, one of Nigeria’s early
independence politicians who is beloved in southwest Nigeria.
convince — or force — Osinbajo to stand down in favor of another Muslim
candidate from the north. But sidelining Osinbajo would pose other
sectarian risks. He was chosen as Buhari’s running mate in part to
counter southern accusations that the APC is a Muslim party. And
although he is seen as a technocrat, Osinbajo is a powerful political
force in his own right — too powerful, perhaps, to be sidelined in 2019
without alienating millions of voters. He is a pastor in the country’s
largest evangelical church, which has some 6 million members, and his
wife is the granddaughter of Obafemi Awolowo, one of Nigeria’s early
independence politicians who is beloved in southwest Nigeria.
Yet if the north’s “turn” in power is
interrupted again, it will further alienate the region — already home to
the bloody Boko Haram insurgency, which has thrived in part because of
government neglect — and make north-south cooperation on security,
development, and a host of other critical issues more difficult. It
could easily lead to another round of deadly riots, as it did in 2011.
But there is a way out.
interrupted again, it will further alienate the region — already home to
the bloody Boko Haram insurgency, which has thrived in part because of
government neglect — and make north-south cooperation on security,
development, and a host of other critical issues more difficult. It
could easily lead to another round of deadly riots, as it did in 2011.
But there is a way out.
Nigeria should abandon the convention of
north-south presidential power rotation now that it has outlived its
purpose. At the same time, it should deepen power sharing in state and
local governments, which have steadily gained influence relative to the
national government since 1999. Many of the country’s 36 states and 774
local governments already practice some form of power rotation among
politicians from different ethnic, religious, and geographic groups. The
key will be to frame the abolition of power rotation at the
presidential level as an opportunity to strengthen these norms at the
state and local levels — not a chance to terminate them everywhere at
once.
north-south presidential power rotation now that it has outlived its
purpose. At the same time, it should deepen power sharing in state and
local governments, which have steadily gained influence relative to the
national government since 1999. Many of the country’s 36 states and 774
local governments already practice some form of power rotation among
politicians from different ethnic, religious, and geographic groups. The
key will be to frame the abolition of power rotation at the
presidential level as an opportunity to strengthen these norms at the
state and local levels — not a chance to terminate them everywhere at
once.
The reality is that most
Nigerians experience government at the local level anyway. Regardless of
whether Buhari or Osinbajo is in the presidential palace, state and
local officials have the most purchase on the lives of ordinary
citizens. Letting go of a dangerous convention at the national level
while devolving more power to inclusive governance structures at the
local level offers a way out of the current impasse.
Nigerians experience government at the local level anyway. Regardless of
whether Buhari or Osinbajo is in the presidential palace, state and
local officials have the most purchase on the lives of ordinary
citizens. Letting go of a dangerous convention at the national level
while devolving more power to inclusive governance structures at the
local level offers a way out of the current impasse.
Culled from Foreign Policy.
